| 姓名 | 傅正輝(CHENG-HUI FU) | 電子郵件信箱 | s9111643@mail.cyut.edu.tw | |
| 畢業系所 | 營建工程系碩士班(Department and Graduate Institute of Constrction Engineering) | |||
| 畢業學位 | 碩士(Master) | 畢業時期 | 92學年第2學期 | |
| 論文名稱(中) | 作業相關性對總工期不確定影響之評估模式 | |||
| 論文名稱(英) | An Analytical Model
for Evaluating Aggregated Impact of Correlated Activity Durations | |||
| 檔案 |
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論文使用權限 | 校內外完全公開 | |
| 論文語文/頁數 | 中文/85 | |||
| 摘要(中) | 營建作業時間經常受到天氣、機具及地質情況等不確定性施工條件的影響，而與預期結果產生誤差。由於不同作業可能具備相同施工條件，一旦該條件產生變化，各作業之工期均會受影響而產生統計上的相關。不同作業時間的關聯性使得各施工條件對整體工期之影響產生疊加效果而大幅增加預定時間內完成專案的不確定性。為更精確地評估專案工期，本研究以或然率網圖評核術(PNET)為基礎研擬出一套改良的模式(In-path Correlation PNET, IC_PNET)來考慮同一路徑上各作業時間可能存在的關聯性。驗證過程運用蒙地卡羅電腦模擬評估專案工期並據以比較IC_PNET與傳統方法之優劣。 | |||
| 摘要(英) | The durations of construction activities are often influenced by the same uncertain factors, such as weather, supervision, and site conditions. Statistical correlations between activity durations are therefore important in realizing the true distribution of the overall project duration and capturing the inherent uncertainty. To assess the project duration more accurately, this study supplements the probabilistic network evaluation technique (PNET) by incorporating correlations between activities, which are located on the same paths, into a new analysis method (In-path Correlation PNET, IC_PNET). To validate the proposed method, a by-product of this study is to develop a Monte Carlo simulation model based on a new correlated random multivariate generation method (Normal to Anything, NORTA). The simulation result is used to evaluate the true distribution of the project duration and to compare against the result provided by IC_PNET. It has been shown that IC_PNET can assess the project duration more accurately than PERT (probabilistic evaluation and review technique) and PNET. The practical application of the proposed method is demonstrated through the Ba-Gua Mountain Tunnel project. | |||
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