姓名 李增源(Tseng -Yuen) 電子郵件信箱 jacky0922722605@yahoo.com.tw
畢業系所 營建工程系碩士班(Department and Graduate Institute of Constrction Engineering)
畢業學位 碩士(Master) 畢業時期 92學年第2學期
論文名稱(中) 重複性工程工期成本權衡之不確定性評估模式
論文名稱(英) Stochastic optimization for time-cost tradeoff problem in repetitive projects
檔案
  • etd-0728104-091029.pdf
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    論文語文/頁數 中文/137
    摘要(中) 特定營建專案需要使用相同施作團隊重複地施作於不同單元,例如高層建築的施工、管線的佈設等。該等重複性工程中,如何降低施作團隊的閒置時間,維持工作連續,進而避免增加成本實為一項重要的研究課題。過去研究多假設作業時間及成本為確定值而忽視維持工作連續對於專案工期及成本可能造成的不確定性影響。本研究考量不確定性作業工期及成本,並依各施作團隊的工作連續狀況,求解時間成本權衡問題。研究方法結合基因演算法之尋優技術與蒙地卡羅電腦模擬,建立能同時考量專案趕工與工作連續之不確定性時間成本解析模式,並撰寫成一套電腦模擬程式取名為最適化隨機排程趕工系統(Optimized Stochastic Acceleration Planner, OSAP)。實務案例驗證證明OSAP能有效地搜尋近似最佳解,並就其結果與前人文獻及窮舉法進行比較。
    摘要(英) Construction projects may require the same crews to work repeatedly from one location to another one. This class of projects is therefore referred to as repetitive projects, such as multistory buildings and pipelines. An important issue in scheduling repetitive projects has been directed to eliminate unproductive idleness to maintain work continuity.In doing so, the costs can be reduced. To reach this goal, the underlying assumption of previous approaches is that activity durations and cost are always fixed values.Those assumptions ignore the inherent uncertaintes and may lead to wrong results. The proposed study presents a stochastic time-cost tradeoff model that considers three sets of decision variables: numbers of crews, types of equipment, and the interruptions between locations. The presented model is then solved by means of a genetic algorithm and the Monte Carlo simulation procedure. The goal is to determine a Pareto optimal set, based on which one can determine best acceleration strategies. To allow fast computations, the present model has been implemented into a computer program (Optimized Stochastic Acceleration Planner, OSAP). From these studied cases OSAP demonstrates that it can locate the optimal or near-optimal solutions very efficiently compared with previous approaches and exhaust enumeration.
    關鍵字(中)
  • 時間成本權衡
  • 蒙地卡羅電腦模擬
  • 基因演算法
  • 工作連續
  • 關鍵字(英)
  • time-cost tradeoff
  • genetic algorithm
  • Monte Carlo simulation
  • work continuity
  • 口試委員
  • 黃怡碩
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