名	林偉鉉(Wei-hsuan Lin)	電子郵件信箱	waineyney@yahoo.com.tw
畢業系所	營建工程系碩士班(Department and Graduate Institute of Constrction Engineering)
畢業學位	碩士(Master)	畢業時期	96學年第2學期
論文名稱(中)	我國公共工程建立樂觀偏差調整機制之初步研究
論文名稱(英)	A Preliminary Study on Developing Adjustment Mechanism for Optimism Bias of Infrastructure Projects in Taiwan
檔案	etd-0820108-230858.pdf 本電子全文僅授權使用者為學術研究之目的，進行個人非營利性質之檢索、閱讀、列印。 請遵守中華民國著作權法之相關規定，切勿任意重製、散佈、改作、轉貼、播送，以免觸法。	論文使用權限	校內外完全公開
		論文語文/頁數	中文/89
摘要(中)	公共服務需求的複雜化與大型化，以及工程技術的快速革新，使得公共工程成本以及進度的管控愈益困難，卻也愈益重要。為有效確保工程績效，如何於工程計畫前期充分掌握可能造成之工程成本超支或工期延遲的風險因素，並規劃適當的風險管理方案，便成為公共工程主辦單位需面對的重要課題。基於公共建設品質為提升公共服務效能之必要條件，而風險管理落實與否決定了公共建設之品質水準，英國、加拿大、紐西蘭、澳洲等先進國家，在推動行政改革具體措施中，皆建構完整之風險管理系統，並已落實於各級部會機關之行政程序中。其中，英國政府在風險管理制度中，更發展出針對公共工程成本和工期，評估調整預估值與實際值之間偏差程度的衡量指標－樂觀偏差值(Optimism Bias)，以求有效降低公共工程成本和工期因低估風險潛在影響而過度樂觀評估的問題。本研究擬參考英國的作法，並以公路工程為例，探究建立公路工程之樂觀偏差調整基準，以期提供國內樂觀偏差值(OB)之特性與原因；並初步建置樂觀偏差調整機制乃至後續發展完整之公共工程風險管理制度的參考。
摘要(英)	In recent years the demands of public services become more complicated and large, and the construction technology is rapidly innovated. Therefore it is more important but however difficult to control the cost and the progress of infrastructure projects. In order to ensure the construction performance, how to completely recognize the risks resulted in cost overrun or schedule delay and how to plan for risk management have become major issues for construction authorities. Because high quality construction performance could bring high level public services, and risk management could have critical influence on construction performance, advanced countries such as Britain, Canada, New Zealand and Australia have all established a risk management system to reform their administrative efficiency. Furthermore, British government developed an indicator called “Optimism Bias (OB)” to evaluate the deviation between estimated and actual construction performance in government’s risk management system. OB provides project administrators a reference to determine the condition they face in the project, and help them to minimize negative impacts that risks may result in. This research follows the example of OB evaluation framework to calculate OB in domestic highway construction projects. Then the results can be used to discuss the feasibility of setting an adjustment standard and to realize the characteristics of OB. According to the above findings, strategies for adopting OB adjustment mechanism in domestic infrastructure projects would be suggested.
關鍵字(中)	樂觀偏差(Optimism Bias) 風險管理。 公共工程專案前期規劃	關鍵字(英)	Planning phase of infrastructure projects Key Words: Optimism Bias risk management
口試委員	王明德 - 召集委員 郭斯傑 - 委員 鄭道明 - 委員 周慧瑜 - 指導教授
口試日期	2008-07-29	繳交日期	2008-08-20

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